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The Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks are set to meet in the first round of the NBA playoffs, renewing a rivalry that began last year when the fifth-seeded Heat upset the top-seeded Bucks in the second round en route to the NBA Finals. This year, the roles are reversed, as the Bucks have secured the third seed and the Heat have barely made it into the playoffs as the sixth seed.

20 APRIL 2023
TIME: 09:00 PM ET

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However, the Heat still pose a formidable challenge to the Bucks, with their tough defense, versatile scoring, and playoff experience.
The Heat, led by Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, have had an up-and-down season, with injuries, COVID-19 protocols, and inconsistent shooting hindering their progress.

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The Heat finished the regular season with a record of 40-32, one game behind the fourth-seeded New York Knicks, but they avoided the play-in tournament by beating the Boston Celtics in the final game of the season. The Heat’s success in the playoffs will depend on their defense, which ranks in the top five in the league in points allowed, steals, and blocks, as well as their offense, which has multiple weapons that can score from inside and outside. The Heat’s strengths are their grit, toughness, and resilience, as they have several players who have been to the NBA Finals before and know how to grind out wins. The Heat’s weaknesses are their shooting, which ranks in the bottom half of the league in three-point percentage, and their rebounding, which has been inconsistent at times. The Bucks, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, have had a more consistent and successful season, with a record of 46-26, third best in the Eastern Conference.

The Bucks have made some changes to their roster and their style of play since last year’s disappointment, including adding Jrue Holiday as a playmaking guard and shooting more three-pointers. The Bucks’ success in the playoffs will depend on their defense, which ranks in the top ten in the league in points allowed and blocks, as well as their offense, which has the reigning two-time MVP in Antetokounmpo and a versatile scorer in Middleton. The Bucks’ strengths are their size, length, and athleticism, as they can dominate inside and outside and defend multiple positions.

The Bucks’ weaknesses are their shooting, which has been streaky at times, and their free-throw shooting, which ranks near the bottom of the league. If the Heat and the Bucks meet in the playoffs, it will be a clash of contrasting styles and approaches. The Heat will try to slow down the pace, limit turnovers, and force the Bucks to shoot from the perimeter. The Heat will likely assign Butler to guard Antetokounmpo, as he did last year, and try to frustrate him with physicality and help defense. The Heat will also try to exploit their depth and versatility, by using players such as Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, and Duncan Robinson to score from outside and create mismatches.

The Bucks will try to push the pace, create turnovers, and attack the rim. The Bucks will likely use Holiday to initiate the offense and create open shots for Middleton and Antetokounmpo, as well as use their size advantage to dominate the boards and score in the paint.